Latest rate hike spooks housing market

July 18, 2023



Housing sales in Canada will drop 6.8 per cent year-over-year in 2023 as rising mortgage rates derail what appeared a recovering market, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
The association forecasts that 464,239 property transactions this year. It also now predicts 516,043 being sold in 2024, also below former expectations.
In an April CREA said it expected 492,674 properties to be sold this year, a drop of 1.1 per cent from 2022. Home sales for 2024 were predicted to total 561,090. 
That forecast followed a sales rebound that took shape in most parts of the country in recent months, but also factored in interest rate hikes, which are continuing to weigh on borrowing costs and buyer sentiment. 
CREA sees the national average home price edging down 0.2 per cent from 2022 to $702,409 this year before rising to $723,243 in 2024.
The April forecast had pointed to an average price of $670,389 for this year and $702,200 in 2024.
One of the biggest factors weighing on prices are new listings, which in many markets remain below pre-pandemic levels.
"New listings are now catching up to sales, although this isn’t expected to translate into further big gains in activity as some buyers will likely be moving back to the sidelines, as they did in 2022, to wait for additional signals from the Bank of Canada and the data it bases policy on," the association said in a Friday release.
"Looking further out, there’s also a growing consensus that rates will not just be higher, but likely for longer – well into 2024."
CREA's forecast was released at the same time as its national housing figures for June, which showed seasonally adjusted sales ticked up 1.5 per cent from May to 40,449.
The actual number of sales sat at 50,155, a 4.7 per cent increase from a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the average price reached $709,218, up 6.7 per cent from June 2023. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it was $709,103, down 0.7 per cent from a year prior.
New listings were down 11.1 per cent from last year to 84,749, but up 5.9 per cent on a seasonally adjusted from the month before to 63,571.
"Housing markets appear to be stabilizing heading into the summer following some big ups and downs over the last year," CREA chair Larry Cerqua said in a news release.
"Most importantly, the recovery in new listings over the last few months will give buyers more choice and should help to slow price growth over the second half of the year."
But CREA senior economists also warn that the rate Bank of Canada rate hikes in June and July have means “a major source of uncertainty has returned to the housing market.”