November 5, 2009

OTTAWA – In its fourth quarter report, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has raised its new home starts outlook for 2010, from 150,300 to 164,900 units. The outlook for resales has also been raised, from 420,700 units in 2009 and 419,400 in 2010 (both from third quarter CMHC estimates) to 441,300 and 445,150, respectively.
CMHC’s forecasted numbers are based on the expectation of a further rebound in the economy and a range for starts of between 138,000 and 146,000 units for 2009, and 135,000 to 190,000 units for 2010. In terms of resales, the projected band is between 437,000 and 453,500 units in 2009, and 415,000 to 460,000 units in 2010. Among the other factors expected to contribute to the increase in activity is more moderate prices in the single-family segment.
The CMHC sees fewer new listings as being indicative of a developing trend of the market moving back toward favouring sellers, after having briefly been a buyer’s market during this recession. It expects this trend will continue through at least next year. Prices are projected to rise by 3.1 per cent this year and 3.7 per cent in 2010.